Armenia is playing with fire - Pashinyan risks economic chaos and a rupture with Russia before the elections

With the parliamentary elections in Armenia approaching on June 7, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is basing his campaign on a highly risky strategy. On one hand, he declares that Armenia will remain a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), while simultaneously promoting reforms and a policy of rapprochement with Europe. He maintains that his country can balance between East and West until the moment comes when "the people of Armenia will choose their path." This stance is viewed by many as an attempt at a political maneuver aimed at both Moscow and Brussels.

"Crossroads of the world" or a geopolitical delusion?

Pashinyan is attempting to present Armenia as a central hub for transport and trade. He argues that the country will be transformed into a "crossroads of the world," connecting East, West, North, and South. The plan is based primarily on international transport corridors that would pass through Armenian territory. However, analysts believe that the reality is much more complex. The core plan involves two major axes:

1. The North-South corridor: This is an existing trade network relying mainly on Russia and the countries of the EAEU. The corridor is already operational and primarily serves trade flows related to Moscow.

2. The East-West corridor — the so-called "Trump Peace Road": This is the old Zangezur corridor plan. The goal is to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan via Armenian territory and subsequently with Turkey. The problem is that the route lies very close to the border with Iran, which increases geopolitical risks and discourages investors. Meanwhile, Caspian Sea infrastructure remains inadequate, transport requires continuous changes of mode, and Azerbaijan and Iran are already developing an alternative route. Thus, Armenia risks being left out of the major trade game.

The Russian warning

Russia has already begun sending warning messages to Armenia. Recently, there have been restrictions on exports of Armenian products such as mineral water and cognac, while Moscow possesses even greater influence through energy. Armenia buys Russian natural gas at a price of approximately $177.5 per thousand cubic meters, but the final price for citizens rises to about $400 due to taxes and internal charges. Simultaneously, Gazprom Armenia manages the distribution network in a country with a gasification rate reaching 95%.

The base in Gyumri remains critical

Another critical issue is the Russian military base in Gyumri. Despite Pashinyan's rhetoric of independence, many analysts emphasize that Armenia remains strategically dependent on Russia for protection against potential pressures from Turkey and Azerbaijan. At the same time, the West cannot offer corresponding security guarantees, primarily due to Armenia's geographic isolation.

The fear of economic collapse

Experts warn that a serious rupture with Moscow could lead Armenia into an economic shock. According to estimates, the food industry, alcoholic beverage production, and the tobacco industry could lose up to 30% of their output if trade flows to Russia are restricted. Meanwhile, bilateral trade between Russia and Armenia has already declined by nearly half, reaching approximately $6.4 billion at the start of 2026. Analysts warn that a complete severance of trade channels could cause a liquidity crisis in banks and the collapse of the Armenian dram.

Armenia faces a historic choice

Pashinyan's political gamble is considered extremely dangerous. He appears confident that he can balance between Russia and Europe without serious consequences. However, several analysts believe that Armenia possesses neither the economic strength nor the geopolitical security for such an aggressive diplomatic game. The June 7 elections may determine not only the political course of the country, but also whether Yerevan will continue to navigate between Moscow and Brussels or if it will ultimately be forced to choose a side.

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